Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 3.217378 3.772496 4.387643 5.118864 5.963361 6.907026 8.040417
2025-10-19 2.330255 3.064038 3.966086 5.151953 6.664900 8.525143 10.979948
2025-10-26 1.762394 2.552932 3.613100 5.128222 7.225473 10.011644 13.976357
2025-11-02 1.342010 2.115481 3.234082 4.951641 7.499848 11.113096 16.589038
2025-11-09 1.029466 1.751099 2.867623 4.694681 7.575789 11.899956 18.820607
2025-11-16 0.836577 1.523657 2.652799 4.607807 7.860587 12.990970 21.599903
2025-11-23 0.697158 1.352235 2.489948 4.563661 8.185388 14.158012 24.612997
2025-11-30 0.625172 1.282950 2.483034 4.772341 8.945043 16.100071 29.094748
2025-12-07 0.540887 1.172650 2.381658 4.791517 9.367513 17.511534 32.828794
2025-12-14 0.467188 1.067768 2.270842 4.771223 9.706722 18.803833 36.484185
2025-12-21 0.408949 0.982887 2.183555 4.779390 10.093290 20.214104 40.494228
2025-12-28 0.394060 0.989225 2.281698 5.172223 11.276158 23.229997 47.811114
2026-01-04 0.357836 0.941814 2.262371 5.325509 12.013423 25.506849 54.029859
2026-01-11 0.326048 0.898972 2.246852 5.486534 12.792462 27.962804 60.893158
2026-01-18 0.289087 0.835562 2.173715 5.507189 13.272270 29.865378 66.847767
2026-01-25 0.246395 0.747824 2.027420 5.334334 13.297020 30.816778 70.924728
2026-02-01 0.205493 0.655484 1.852871 5.064187 13.058246 31.168431 73.750090
2026-02-08 0.178992 0.597963 1.756824 4.972822 13.226642 32.431224 78.698068
2026-02-15 0.157992 0.551926 1.682920 4.926080 13.495721 33.948005 84.370922
2026-02-22 0.149494 0.542916 1.709489 5.150515 14.473520 37.212999 94.390641
2026-03-01 0.134917 0.510799 1.664449 5.171205 14.927911 39.278626 101.793374
2026-03-08 0.120766 0.476732 1.607560 5.149437 15.266967 41.099096 108.791026
2026-03-15 0.109116 0.448585 1.563587 5.158222 15.689764 43.171187 116.610066